FinanceCalcs
Crypto vs. S&P 500 Calculator
How would the same investment have performed in Bitcoin, Ethereum, or the S&P 500 over any time period? Compare side-by-side to see real returns, risk-adjusted performance, and how volatile each asset was along the way.
Bitcoin has outperformed the S&P 500 massively since 2010 — and also crashed 80%+ three times. This calculator shows both sides of that story.
Crypto vs. S&P 500
$0 invested • --
Best Performer: --
Final Values Comparison
| Asset | Final Value | Return | CAGR | Max Drawdown |
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Year-by-Year Returns
| Year | BTC Value | ETH Value | S&P 500 | BTC Annual Ret. | S&P Annual Ret. |
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"Bitcoin has outperformed every asset class in 7 of the last 10 years. It has also been the worst-performing asset in 3 of those same years."
— Crypto Market Observation
Crypto vs. stocks: the risk-return tradeoff
Bitcoin has produced returns that dwarf the S&P 500 since 2010. But the comparison is only meaningful when you account for the volatility involved. Bitcoin’s annualized volatility is roughly 70–80% — compared to about 15% for the S&P 500. That means Bitcoin can lose 80% of its value in a single bear market, which it has done three times.
The S&P 500, by contrast, has never declined more than 57% (2009 financial crisis) and has always recovered to new highs within a few years. An investor who bought the S&P 500 at any point in the last 20 years and held for 10 years has made money. The same cannot be said for Bitcoin investors who bought near the 2017 or 2021 peaks.
The practical conclusion for most investors: a small allocation to crypto (5–10% of portfolio) provides meaningful upside exposure without catastrophic downside risk if crypto collapses. A 100% crypto portfolio requires extraordinary risk tolerance and a truly long time horizon.
lightbulb 10-Year Returns: $10,000 Invested Jan 2015
| Asset | Value (Mar 2025) | Return | CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | ~$3,840,000 | +38,300% | ~80%/yr |
| Ethereum | ~$222,000 | +2,120% | ~37%/yr |
| S&P 500 | ~$27,900 | +179% | ~11%/yr |
| Cash (3%/yr) | ~$13,440 | +34% | ~3%/yr |
Bitcoin’s extraordinary return masks the fact that it fell 85% between these years. Timing mattered enormously.
Disclaimer: All calculators on this site are provided for informational and educational purposes only. Results are estimates based on the inputs you provide and mathematical formulas — they do not account for taxes, fees, inflation, risk, or other real-world factors that may affect financial outcomes. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. Always consult a qualified professional before making financial decisions.
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